Science

Just 7% of our DNA is unique to modern humans, study shows

What makes humans unique? Scientists have taken another step toward solving an enduring mystery with a new tool that may allow for more precise comparisons between the DNA of modern humans and that of our extinct ancestors.

Just 7% of our genome is uniquely shared with other humans, and not shared by other early ancestors, according to a study published Friday in the journal Science Advances.

“That’s a pretty small percentage,” said Nathan Schaefer, a University of California computational biologist and co-author of the new paper. “This kind of finding is why scientists are turning away from thinking that we humans are so vastly different from Neanderthals.”

A reconstructed Neanderthal skeleton, right, and a modern human skeleton on display at the Museum of Natural History in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

The research draws upon DNA extracted from fossil remains of now-extinct Neanderthals and Denisovans dating back to around 40,000 or 50,000 years ago, as well as from 279 modern people from around the world.

Scientists already know that modern people share some DNA with Neanderthals, but different people share different parts of the genome. One goal of the new research was to identify the genes that are exclusive to modern humans.

It’s a difficult statistical problem, and the researchers “developed a valuable tool that takes account of missing data in the ancient genomes,” said John Hawks, a paleoanthropologist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who was not involved in the research.

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The researchers also found that an even smaller fraction of our genome — just 1.5% — is both unique to our species and shared among all people alive today. Those slivers of DNA may hold the most significant clues as to what truly distinguishes modern human beings.

“We can tell those regions of the genome are highly enriched for genes that have to do with neural development and brain function,” said University of California, Santa Cruz computational biologist Richard Green, a co-author of the paper.

In 2010, Green helped produce the first draft sequence of a Neanderthal genome. Four years later, geneticist Joshua Akey co-authored a paper showing that modern humans carry some remnants of Neanderthal DNA. Since then, scientists have continued to refine techniques to extract and analyze genetic material from fossils.

“Better tools allow us to ask increasingly more detailed questions about human history and evolution,” said Akey, who is now at Princeton and was not involved in the new research. He praised the methodology of the new study.

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However, Alan Templeton, a population geneticist at Washington University in St Louis, questioned the authors’ assumption that changes in the human genome are randomly distributed, rather than clustered around certain hotspots within the genome.

The findings underscore “that we’re actually a very young species,” said Akey. “Not that long ago, we shared the planet with other human lineages.”

NASA’s Mars Perseverance rover snaps shots of unique rock formation in ‘ancient lakebed’

NASA’s Mars rover Perseverance has sent pictures back to Earth of a unique rock formation within what the space agency called an “ancient lakebed” in its latest reported discovery during it mission on the Red Planet.

“Check out this patch of rock I found: looks kind of like garden pavers, and is probably exposed bedrock,” read a message from the research robot’s Twitter account on Wednesday. “Material like this, from the early days of this ancient lakebed, can help capture what that lake was like. Spending a few days investigating…”

Perseverance arrived on Mars on Feb. 18 after a six-month journey through space. The rover’s landing site was at the Jezero Crater, and “scientists believe the area was once flooded with water and was home to an ancient river delta,” according to NASA.

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The rover is being assisted by Integrity, NASA’s Mars helicopter, which made its ninth flight on Mars earlier this month. Integrity made history on April 19 by completing the first controlled flight by an aircraft on a planet other than Earth.

“My science team is poring over these color images from the #MarsHelicopter’s latest flight,” Perseverance’s Twitter account posted last week along with video of Martian terrain. “Ingenuity crossed over a region that would be tricky for me to drive on, adding a new perspective to the picture of Jezero Crater that I’m piecing together.”

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Perseverance’s mission on Mars includes searching the Red Planet for signs of ancient microbial life, collecting samples, surveying the geological features within the Jezero Crater, and sending images back to Earth.

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Perseverance marked NASA’s ninth landing on Mars and is the agency’s fifth rover. She is also the largest, weighing in at more than a metric ton.

Lunar orbit ‘wobble’ could result in high-tide flooding rise in the 2030s: NASA researchers

By the mid-2030s, scientists believe that coastal regions in the U.S. will begin to experience an increase in high-tide flooding (HTF), partially due to a “wobble” in the moon’s orbit.

In a NASA-led study published in June in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers said that the planet’s lunar cycle would exacerbate sea level rise (SLR) spurred by climate change in coming years.

The study authors used scenarios and “flooding thresholds” to show how the effects of SLR and “nodal cycle modulations of tidal amplitude” lead to severe inflections in projections of future HTF.

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In addition, the research – which the agency said takes all known oceanic and astronomical causes for floods into account – said annual cycles and sea-level anomalies could lead to seasons or monthslong periods during which days of HTF will cluster, resulting in “critical frequencies” of HTF occurring during monthly or seasonal periods one to two decades prior to being expected on an annual basis.

“When the moon and Earth line up in specific ways with each other and the sun, the resulting gravitational pull and the ocean’s corresponding response may leave city-dwellers coping with floods every day or two,” NASA said in a release.

While HTF or “nuisance” flooding is already an issue for coastal cities around the country – especially bordering the Atlantic Ocean – the impact of risings seas has been comparatively minor in this decade.

Nevertheless, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a total of more than 600 nuisance floods in 2019 and noted that the national trend in such flooding is accelerating and is “more than twice as likely now as it was in 2000” due to relative SLR.

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The agency said that by 2050, high-tide flooding is likely to occur between 25 and 75 days per year, depending on location.

“It’s the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact,” said Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the new study. “But if it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot underwater. People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue.”

The lunar “wobble” takes 18.6 years to complete and has been observed for generations, but how that wobble impact’s the moon’s gravitational pull combines with rising sea levels is “what’s new.”

While Earth’s regular tides are suppressed in half of the 18.6-year lunar cycle, SLR pushes tides higher during the other half.

NASA said that the next time the moon is in the tide-amplifying part of its cycle, higher seas will cause a “leap” in flood numbers for almost all of U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii and Guam.

The scientists projected results to 2080, revealing tipping points by studying 89 tide gauge locations in every coastal U.S. state and territory but Alaska and using the flooding thresholds, astronomical cycles and statistical representations of other tide-affecting processes like the Pacific Ocean’s El Niño climate pattern.

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The global sea level has been rising at an increased rate in recent decades and continues to rise at a rate of about one-eighth of an inch per year.

“Low-lying areas near sea level are increasingly at risk and suffering due to the increased flooding, and it will only get worse,” warned NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The combination of the Moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels, and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coastlines and across the world. NASA’s Sea Level Change Team is providing crucial information so that we can plan, protect, and prevent damage to the environment and people’s livelihoods affected by flooding.”

Pup births hopeful sign for wolves in Isle Royale, Michigan: scientists

TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. – Wolf pups have been spotted again on Isle Royale, a hopeful sign in the effort to rebuild the predator species’ population at the U.S. national park, scientists said Monday.

It’s unknown how many gray wolves roam the island chain in northwestern Lake Superior. The coronavirus pandemic forced cancellation of the census that Michigan Technological University experts had conducted each winter for 63 years.

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Remote cameras detected four pups on the park’s eastern end in January, the researchers said in a new report. The sightings, and additional clues such as previously observed scats and tracks, suggest that two litters were born in the area last year and perhaps another on the western side.

Park officials said last fall that at least two pups likely were born in 2019.

The population was 12 to 14 during the last Michigan Tech survey in winter 2020. The latest births would indicate it is higher now, but some older wolves may have died.

“It most likely will be winter of next year before we have firm information,” said Sarah Hoy, a research assistant professor and animal ecologist, adding that the presence of young wolves is reason for optimism. “Things are definitely looking up.”

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Scientists with Michigan Tech, the National Park Service and State University of New York will combine available information with genetic analyses to produce a population estimate based on death rates and numbers of litters.

An initial data summary should be finished this month, said Mark Romanski, a biologist and natural resources program manager at Isle Royale.

“Because of constraints placed on field activities during the pandemic, we are especially pleased to have multiple lines of evidence to enumerate the population,” he said.

Wolves are believed to have migrated to Isle Royale from Minnesota or the Canadian province of Ontario around the middle of the 20th century, crossing about 15 miles (24 kilometers) over the frozen lake surface.

Once established, they began feasting on the park’s abundant moose and helped keep the herd from outgrowing its food supply. But wolf numbers plummeted in the past decade, which scientists blamed primarily on inbreeding.

The National Park Service announced plans in 2018 to restore the population, which had fallen to two. Crews took 19 wolves from Minnesota, Ontario and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula to the island in a series of airlifts. Some have died and at least one wandered back to the mainland but most appear to be settling in.

“They’re killing moose, starting to function as they should,” Hoy said.

The goal is to have 20-30 wolves within three to five years. Officials haven’t decided whether to bring more in, park spokeswoman Liz Valencia said.

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“A healthy park ecosystem includes a variety of wildlife and abundant food sources,” said Christine Goepfert, Midwest associate director for the National Parks Conservation Association. “As wolves bounce back after nearly disappearing from the park, their presence as a predator on the island will help all wildlife and native plants thrive at Isle Royale.”

The wolves’ decline fueled a moose boom between 2012 and 2019, when the population may have reached 2,000 before dropping to 1,876 last year. It appears to have fallen further since, the report said.

During vegetation surveys this spring, researchers found 15 moose dead from starvation. Balsam fir saplings, their primary winter food source, were in “the worst condition ever observed” as moose munched every available branch, Hoy said. Blood-sucking ticks that thrived during the mild winter made things worse.

Also during the past year, personnel with the park service and Michigan Tech organized thousands of moose bones that have been gathered at Isle Royale. They’re being cleaned, photo-documented and entered into a database. The collection eventually will be housed in a museum.

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“It is gratifying to see the National Park Service invest in the long-term preservation of moose bones, and it is almost certain that the scientific value of the collection will increase over time,” Michigan Tech wildlife ecologist Rolf Peterson said. “We have already put it to use in ways never anticipated when the bones were first collected and saved.”

Bug experts dropping gypsy moth name after deeming it offensive

Bug experts are dropping the common name of a destructive insect because it’s considered an ethnic slur: the gypsy moth.

The Entomological Society of America, which oversees the common names of bugs, is getting rid of the common name of that critter and the lesser-known gypsy ant. The group this week announced that for the first time it changed a common name of an insect because it was offensive. In the past it’s only reassigned names that weren’t scientifically accurate.

“It’s an ethnic slur to begin with that’s been rejected by the Romani people a long time ago,’’ said society president Michelle S. Smith. “Second, nobody wants to be associated with a harmful invasive pest.”

A female Lymantria dispar moth lays her eggs on the trunk of a tree in the Salmon River State Forest in Hebron, Conn. (AP)

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The society is taking a hard look at some of the more than 2,000 common insect names to remove derogatory and geographically inaccurate ones. About 20 years ago, a committee of fish experts renamed the jewfish to the goliath grouper.

The moths are invasive and destructive critters in the caterpillar stage. They have a voracious appetite that can denude entire forests of leaves, said University of Illinois entomologist May Berenbaum, a past society president.

The moths likely got their name because as larvae they have hair with small air pockets that act like balloons allowing them to float for miles, wandering like the group of people they were named after, Berenbaum said. Another theory is that male adult moths have a tan color that could be similar to Romani people.

The Entomological Society is now on the hunt for a new common name, a process that will take months, Smith said. Until then, even though it’s a mouthful, Smith said the moths should be called by their scientific name, Lymantria dispar or L. dispar.

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Berenbaum — who has written about weirdly named plants, animals and gene mutations — said given the moths’ destructiveness, she and other would have some ideas for a descriptive new name.

“You’re not allowed to use obscenities,” she said, “so that’s out.”

Elsa latest: Tropical storm warning issued for parts of Florida Keys

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys, in addition to storm watches for the state’s southwestern coast Sunday morning as Tropical Storm Elsa headed toward the state.

Elsa, which battered the southern coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Saturday and Sunday, was downgraded from a Category 1 hurricane Saturday morning. The storm has left at least three people dead, one in St. Lucia and two in the Dominican Republic.

Sunday morning’s tropical storm warning said it covers from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, while a tropical storm watch is in effect from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef. The tropical storm watch for Florida’s southwest coast is from Flamingo north to Bonita Beach.

A storm watch for Florida Bay is also currently in effect.

A tropical storm warning, according to the National Hurricane Center, is issued when “tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.” A tropical storm watch is issued when “tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.”

Tropical Storm Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving in a west-northwesterly direction at about 14 mph by early Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Home Depot department supervisor, Arnaldo Gonzalez, loads water bottles into Elena Arvalo’s shopping cart as shoppers prepare for possible effects of tropical storm Elsa in Miami on Saturday, July 3, 2021. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald via AP) ( )

Hurricane Elsa approaches Argyle, St. Vincent, Friday, July 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Orvil Samuel) ( )

The storm was forecast to hit Cuba next on a path that would take it to the Florida Keys late on Monday, and Florida’s west coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Cuban government evacuated 70,000 people from the southern coast Sunday.

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Elsa prompted Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to declare a state of emergency in 15 Florida counties, including Miami-Dade County, where a high-rise condominium building collapsed last week. The standing portion of the building was expected to demolished “a soon as possible” amid concerns over Elsa approaching, the governor said Saturday.

Elsa was expected to slow down and turn northwest by Sunday night or Monday when the Keys could start seeing storm conditions, the hurricane center and FOX 13 of Tampa reported.

Elsa is then expected to move near or over parts of the Gulf coast of Florida by Tuesday, the hurricane center said. Some models show it heading into the Gulf or up the Atlantic Coast. Elsa’s ultimate trajectory remained uncertain.

An electrical pole felled by Hurricane Elsa leans on the edge of a residential balcony, in Cedars, St. Vincent, Friday, July 2, 2021. (Associated Press)

“What we don’t want to be is on the eastern side of the storm,” FOX 13 meteorologist Tony Sadiku said. “That gives us more of the impacts of wind and rain.

If the storm moves into the southeastern Gulf as a tropical storm it will likely gain strength, but will more likely weaken if it’s torn apart while moving over Cuba, FOX 13 meteorologist Tyler Eliasen said Saturday.

Parts of the Keys could face a storm surge of one to two feet and, along with the peninsula, could have two to six inches of rain and isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, the hurricane center said. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week.

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Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for the southern part of Haiti and parts of Cuba along with a watch for parts of the Cayman Islands.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

RISING SMOKE: After 10.3M acres burned in US last year, West’s 2021 fire season outlook uncertain

Wildfires are burning in California. And Oregon. And Washington. And Arizona.

While fire is a restorative force that can ultimately revitalize ecosystems, it has been increasingly destructive and deadly in the West, fueled by extreme heat and persistent drought.

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The scorched black shadows of trees still line the hills and mountains of the Golden State — a year-round reminder of looming danger.

The threat of wildfires to residents of the West is now seemingly omnipresent. It lingers long after the smoke has passed and the skies have turned crimson.

Homes are damaged in the blazes, memories go up in smoke and neighbors whose houses were miraculously untouched — just out of reach — are left to ponder the “what ifs?”

The deadly Napa and Sonoma counties wildfires in 2017 took a toll on the state’s important wine industry, with businesses still recovering from the financial wreckage years later.

The Bobcat Fire continues to burn through the Angeles National Forest in Los Angeles County, north of Azusa, California, September 17, 2020. (Photo by Kyle Grillot / AFP) (Photo by KYLE GRILLOT/AFP via Getty Images)

Last year, California saw the most acres burn in its most frightening and widespread wildfire season to date.

More than 4 million acres were charred in the Glass, Creek LNU and CZU Lightning Complex Fires, among many others.

Dozens of people were killed and almost 9,000 buildings were destroyed as firefighters from across the country, Canada, Australia and New Zealand worked to assist California’s federal firefighters in the effort.

Pacific Gas & Electric was forced to implement preventative rolling blackouts — impacting millions of customers — for the first time since 2001, citing record heat.

Wildfires in the state, meanwhile, ravaged the utility’s grid, cutting off a solar plant and transmission from a hydro plant.

PG&E, which had just emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, was later made to pay $43.4 million in settlements with government agencies in three counties ransacked by wildfires ignited by its equipment in 2019 and 2020.

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In Oregon, wildfires last year burned more than 1 million acres, nearly twice the average fire damage between 2010 and 2019.

And in Washington state, 2020 was the second-most devastating fire season in terms of acreage charred by flames.

The town of Malden in eastern Washington, home to around 200 people, was all but wiped off the map in September, as the state was ravaged by a “historic fire event” worsened by a Labor Day windstorm. More than 500,000 acres burned in less than 36 hours, and one person died.

Fire season dragged on through the end of the year and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data showed that 58,258 fires had burned 10,274,679 acres: the most acreage consumed in the U.S. since at least 2000.

The agency’s report of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events across the nation showed that 2020’s wildfire season was the “most-active wildfire year on record across the West,” dating back to 1983, with three of the largest wildfires in Colorado history and five of the six biggest-ever blazes in California.

The nearly 10.3 million acres consumed exceeded the 2000 to 2010 average by 51%. NOAA noted that drought conditions had “expanded or intensified” across much of the West and southern to central High Plains throughout 2020 “with persistent above-average temperatures and precipitation deficits.”

Rainfall in the Rockies and farther west was the second-lowest on record in April 2021 and rainstorms over most of the West have become more erratic, according to researchers with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Heat in the West has also trended “above normal,” with record warmth reported by long-term weather stations in Oregon, California and New Mexico, and stations in all Western states reporting the top 10 warmest years on record.

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In a recent report, scientists at NOAA and NASA announced they had determined that the planet’s atmosphere has been trapping an “unprecedented” amount of heat, with the planet’s energy imbalance approximately doubling from 2005 to 2019.

Increases in greenhouse gases emitted, such as carbon dioxide and methane, trap heat in the atmosphere and capture outgoing radiation. The increasing imbalance is also due to increases in water vapor and decreases in clouds and sea ice.

In its National Climate Assessment, NOAA wrote that the fact the Earth’s climate is changing is “apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations.”

“The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels,” the agency said, noting “stronger evidence confirms” that an increase in extreme weather and climate events are related to human activities.

With Mount Shasta in the background, a firefighter cools down hot spots on Monday, June 28, 2021, after the Lava Fire swept through the area north of Weed, Calif. (Scott Stoddard/Grants Pass Daily Courier via AP)

“Human-induced climate change is projected to continue, and it will accelerate significantly if global emissions of heat-trapping gases continue to increase,” said NOAA.

In looking at changes in heat waves, floods and droughts, NOAA researchers found that heat waves were occurring more often, as cold snaps decrease.

Over the month of June, multiple heat waves in the West set numerous records, with triple-digit temperatures in the normally temperate Pacific Northwest and northern Plains.

As sweltering and oppressive weather bared down on the region — killing hundreds in the U.S. and western Canada, many of whom were found alone in homes without air conditioning or fans — drought conditions worsened.

According to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor report, more than 47% of the country is currently in some form of drought, with a shocking 93% of the West: the highest percentage for the region this century.

Almost 60% of the West is in either “extreme” or “exceptional” drought conditions, and it’s not expected to let up outside of an influx of moisture and precipitation across southern Arizona and New Mexico.

Buchanan Dam holds back water in Eastman Lake on Thursday, June 17, 2021, in unincorporated Madera County, Calif. At the time of this photo, the reservoir was at 11 percent of capacity and 20 percent of its historical average. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Some 1,500 critical reservoirs were shown to be worryingly dry in California and boat ramps were closed in New Mexico. State and local leaders issued emergency orders and declarations, hoping to receive federal assistance.

Cities in Utah banned fireworks ahead of July Fourth, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife was considering relocating some fish species, Idaho water managers cut off irrigation flows to farmers and Utah’s Republican Gov. Spencer Cox called on residents and businesses to use less water.

Dry vegetation was a harbinger of tough times months before sweeping action was taken in California. According to a recent report from CapRadio and the California Newsroom, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom overstated the success of forest management projects and slashed around $150 million from the state’s wildfire-prevention budget.

But Newsom — who butted heads with former president Donald Trump frequently regarding the role of climate change in causing record wildfires — has already secured $37 million in federal grant money for Sonoma County as part of a FEMA program.

It was a move announced by President Biden at a June 30 meeting with governors, key Cabinet members, and leaders from FEMA and major utilities, and senior White House staff.

Biden pointed out that there are more out-of-control fires burning now than the same time last year, with already about 9,000 firefighters deployed across the West.

“Fire season, traditionally, lasts through October. But with climate change — climate change driving the dangerous confluence of extreme heat and prolonged drought — we’re seeing wildfires in greater intensity that move with more speed … and [last] well beyond traditional months — the traditional months of the fire season,” Biden said. “And that’s a problem for all of us.”

In the Grand Canyon State, local officials are highlighting terrifying drying trends.

Lake Mead — which holds water for cities, farms and tribal lands there and in Nevada, California and Mexico — has declined to its lowest level since it was filled in the 1930s as the Colorado River continues to shrink.

The system is shared by seven states and Mexico, but not everyone in those states was utilizing the sources. The Ute Water Conservancy District in Colorado announced Friday that it would dip into the Colorado River for the first time in 65 years due to drought concerns.

With fire officials reporting reservoirs at low levels and fires larger and hotter than ever, Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management spokesperson Tiffany Davila has her work cut out for her.

In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Davila noted that around 60% of the state was in the highest category of drought, and there was more widespread fire activity and larger incidents — though “signs of a monsoon season” and forthcoming precipitation were positive.

In this photo provided by Joseph Pacheco, a wildfire is seen burning in Globe, Ariz., on Monday, June 7, 2021. (Joseph Pacheco via AP)

“If we really start to see our monsoon activity pick up, I think we won’t see as many acres burned as we did last year,” she said.

Last year’s wildfire season was the second-worst in Arizona since 2011, with 1,087 fires and 544,113 acres burned.

Fire crews are currently fighting at least eight blazes, ranging from 25 acres to a couple thousand acres, including the Backbone, Tiger, Castle and Rafael fires and others sparked by lightning.

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Another difference this year is that there are closures in place in the state, with recreational use barred on most Forest Service and all state lands.

Temperatures in Arizona have played a role in decision-making as vegetation in the state is “pretty much a tinderbox,” according to Davila.

Phoenix set a record for the hottest June in the city’s history.

“Due to the lack of precipitation that we have had, it’s basically kindling,” she said. ” So, when you take the drought-stricken fuel coupled with the extreme heat, the wind that we’ve had this year and then — in some places, you know, where a fire may start — the topography, the terrain: all of that can go into how active a fire is.”

The Coconino County Sheriff’s Office blocks off a U.S. Forest Service Road outside of Flagstaff, Ariz., on Monday, June 21, 2021. Dozens of wildfires were burning in hot, dry conditions across the U.S. West, including a blaze touched off by lightning that was moving toward northern Arizona’s largest city. (Brady Wheeler/Arizona Daily Sun via AP)

Forecasters are calling for a wetter-than-average July across the Southwest, but a drier than normal month is expected across the northern U.S. and Pacific Northwest.

Dismal snowpack totals across western mountain regions were an early indicator that the decades-long drought would strengthen and persist, The Arizona Republic reported in April.

The newspaper highlighted research from the American Geophysical Union that showed the longest dry spells between measurable precipitation increasing by more than two days per decade, with precipitation declining and temperatures increasing.

About a year earlier, bioclimatologist and hydroclimatologist Park Williams — now an associate research professor at UCLA — published a study in the journal Science suggesting the West may be entering into a megadrought worse than any in the historical record.

Speaking with Fox News on Friday, Williams said that the heat waves in 2020 and this year have been “just totally shocking,” with temperature leaps of five to 10 degrees Fahrenheit.

Williams examines how drought and forests interact in the West, focusing on tree ring records and forest surveys.

“Of all the various things that I’ve looked at, wildfire is just such a straightforward and strong drought impact. Where, if you look at the amount of forest area burned in a given year in the western U.S. and then you look at climate variables like the amount of days it rains this summer or what the vapor pressure deficits was in the atmosphere – which is basically dryness in the atmosphere – then all those variables go hand-in-hand,” he said.

“Which kind of blows me away, given that fire is inherently a chaotic event… The outcome of any given fire is determined by tons of randomness… But the amount of area burned turns out to be totally predictable based on climate data.”

Williams said scientists first noticed the relationship between fire and climate in the early 2000s, hoping that there could be “some rule” about the size of fires. Now, the average wildfire year creates 10 times more burned area than it did four years ago and every degree of warming expands the devastataion.

“That means that for the next few decades, there’s still a lot more in store, I think. It seems like it’s been really dramatic, a huge increase in fire,” he said. “But if you look at the amount of forest area that’s actually burned in the western U.S., in the last 40 years, only about 15% of western U.S. forest has burned. Meaning that 85% is still sitting there totally intact, ready to burn. And so, it’s going to be a long time before we start pushing up against the upper limit on how big fires can get.”

So far, 2021 already ranks as one of the driest years of the last 120, and with what is considered “normal” changing due to climate change, adjusting to heightened wildfire seasons will be crucial to ensuring survival.

Is there a solution?

Williams said “the writing is on the wall” in terms of the urgency in tackling climate change, but getting leaders to agree to needed action remains difficult.

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Major prescribed burns in some areas, for example, could lessen the risk of severe wildfires, but he questions the resolve to take such action.

“We have 100 years of bad decision-making to make up for, and it could take 100 years of good decision-making to really make up for it,” he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Hurricane Elsa weakens slightly, tracking west of Surfside condo collapse: reports

Hurricane Elsa weakened slightly early Saturday as it continued barreling through the Caribbean on its way to Florida, according to reports.

The hurricane was following a path that was expected to carry it west of the partial condo collapse in Surfside, Florida, by the time it reaches the state early Tuesday as a tropical storm, the Sun Sentinel of South Florida reported.

After posting wind gusts of 85 miles per hour late Friday as it neared Hispaniola, Elsa’s winds slowed to about 80 mph early Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said in a 2 a.m. advisory.

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Elsa was about 285 miles east-southeast of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic, and 620 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, the advisory said. It was advancing at a speed of about 29 miles per hour, the hurricane center said.

The hurricane was expected to slow to tropical storm status by the time it reaches Cuba, according to the hurricane center.

In Florida, Broward Mayor Steve Geller was urging residents to stock up now on items such as water, non-perishable food and batteries, rather than waiting until later in the hurricane season, the Sun Sentinel reported.

“We’ve all been there before and we know people have a tendency to wait,” Geller said, according to the newspaper. ” … Please prepare now for the entire hurricane season.”

This satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Elsa moving through the Caribbean, over Barbados. Elsa was expected to pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday and to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. (Associated Press)

Haiti, the nation on the western portion of Hispaniola, is vulnerable to floods and landslides when storms hit because of erosion and deforestation, The Associated Press reported. Authorities there urged residents to evacuate if they lived near water or mountain flanks, according to the AP.

“The whole country is threatened by this hurricane,” the Civil Protection Agency said in a statement. “Make every effort to escape before it’s too late.”

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In the Dominican Republic, on the eastern side of Hispaniola, officials opened more than 2,400 shelters as heavy rains were expected to begin early Saturday.

According to the hurricane center, hurricane-force winds extend 25 miles from Elsa’s center while tropical-storm-force winds extend 150 miles from the hurricane’s center.

The storm reached hurricane strength Friday morning.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Research ship works to predict the next ‘big one’ as West Coast overdue for earthquake

California unveils earthquake warning system

New system sends earthquake warnings through an app and the wireless system that issues Amber Alerts; insight from Richard Allen, director of the UC Berkeley Seismological Lab.

A team of scientists is reportedly working to obtain the sharpest pictures ever taken of the Cascadia subduction zone – a fault line that runs for seven hundred miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.

The subduction zone, which has been the site of some of North America’s largest earthquakes and the Earth’s past “megathrust” earthquakes, has been strangely quiet, with almost no seismic activity detected.

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To investigate Cascadia’s Oregon and British Columbia portion and the reason for this lull, researchers – including students – from the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, University of Washington, Oregon State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have boarded Columbia University’s R/V Marcus G. Langseth for the weeks-long expedition funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation.

Science technicians are also present to help operate the seismic equipment as well as marine mammal observers and the Langseth’s officers and crew.

“During our cruise, we are using sound to probe under the seafloor looking for the megathrust fault deep beneath several kilometers of sediments that cover the down-going Juan de Fuca plate,” Columbia’s Bruce C. Heezen/Lamont Research Professor Suzanne Carbotte wrote in a Tuesday post detailing the trip.

“Our survey will be the first-ever seismic imaging study to span almost the entire Cascadia subduction zone. We will be using modern advanced seismic imaging technology to detect and characterize fine-scale structures within the subduction zone to help address a range of scientific questions pertaining to earthquake and tsunami hazards within the Pacific Northwest region,” she added.

Carbotte, in an email to Fox News, explained further that the key overarching question is: “Where is the megathrust fault that generates ‘the big one’ buried deep beneath the sediments at Cascadia?”

“Because the fault zone is so quiet seismically, we really don’t have a good picture of where the part of the fault that generates the big earthquakes is located. At other subduction zones, there are many small earthquakes recorded along the megathrust fault that scientists can use to locate the fault and study its properties,” she said. “But not at Cascadia.”

Research vessel (R/V) Marcus G. Langseth, operated by Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory’s Office of Marine Operations, can deploy several kilometers of cable to collect seismic data from beneath the seafloor.
( Jared Kluesner, USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center. )

“Earthquakes and fault systems are extremely complex; there are many parameters that can affect earthquake rupture, ” U.S. Geological Survey Research Geologist Lydia Staisch told Fox News via email on Thursday. “So, predicting where and when an earthquake will occur is extremely difficult. But what we can do is read the paleoseismic record to understand what past earthquakes were, like, where they occurred and how they impacted specific regions.”

She added, “The Cascadia subduction zone has a lot of evidence for past earthquakes, which is cataloged in the stratigraphy along the coast and far offshore. The paleoseismological record helps us gain an understanding of what the range of possible scenarios could be for future earthquakes.”

According to Science Mag, the Langseth will use ultrasound technology, emitting sound pulses from a sound source towed behind the ship to construct a detailed image of the subsurface.

Additionally, the team will reportedly use hydrophone microphones and hundreds of other receivers on the ocean floor and land to record echoes and reflections from the fault.

“The level of detail in the images we can acquire with this technology can’t be acquired any other way and there are a whole host of questions that can be addressed only with the high resolution of the structures and properties of the subsurface that we can obtain,” Carbotte said Thursday.

Furthermore, she noted in the post that the Cascadia’s silence has been assumed to mean the fault is “entirely locked,” signaling the potential for a Cascadia megaquake.

“Scientists believe this lack of seismicity reflects the ‘locked’ state of the megathrust fault at present, with strain quietly accumulating as the Juan de Fuca plate system continues to dive (subduct) beneath North America. All or part of that built-up strain will eventually be released in the next great earthquake,” she wrote.

In addition to locating the fault, Cabotte said the data the team is acquiring “will be used to characterize the properties of the fault zone which will help us better understand where and why some parts might be creeping slowly now.”

While other parts may appear fully locked contributing to the risk of destructive rupture, Carbotte told Fox News that this “kind of information is needed to better constrain earthquake and tsunami hazards along the margin.”

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Scientists hope this expedition will help to gain further insight into the matter, including how close to the surface a future rupture could reach, if there are pockets of gas trapped that could make sediments liable to collapse during an earthquake and how quickly airgun waves travel through sediments – particularly useful for improving early warnings.

Science Mag said that movement captured by GPS stations has been reassuring, suggesting that part of the fault is “creeping” and releasing stress and that there’s evidence that many large quakes did not rupture the whole fault, but the question of when the next “big one” will strike remains.

“The scientific community cannot predict the time, location, and magnitude of earthquakes to the degree of being of practical use to society,” Kelin Wang, Geological Survey of Canada Pacific Geoscience Centre research scientist, wrote to Fox News on Thursday. “The study of earthquakes, including the structural imaging like in this cruise and the study of seismic or geodetic signals that had preceded past earthquakes, allow us to understand the physics of earthquakes – what geological factors control their size, location, recurrence pattern, preparation process, and so forth.”

As famed Titanic decays, mission will monitor deterioration

The Titanic is disappearing. The iconic ocean liner that was sunk by an iceberg is now slowly succumbing to metal-eating bacteria: holes pervade the wreckage, the crow’s nest is already gone and the railing of the ship’s iconic bow could collapse at any time.

Racing against the inevitable, an undersea exploration company’s expedition to the site of the wreckage could start this week, beginning what’s expected to be an annual chronicling of the ship’s deterioration. With the help of wealthy tourists, experts hope to learn more about the vessel as well as the underwater ecosystem that shipwrecks spawn.

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“The ocean is taking this thing, and we need to document it before it all disappears or becomes unrecognizable,” Stockton Rush, president of OceanGate Expeditions, said Friday from a ship headed to the North Atlantic wreck site.

The 109-year-old ocean liner is being battered by deep-sea currents and bacteria that consumes hundreds of pounds of iron a day. Some have predicted the ship could vanish in a matter of decades as holes yawn in the hull and sections disintegrate.

This 2004 photo provided by the Institute for Exploration, Center for Archaeological Oceanography/University of Rhode Island/NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration, shows the remains of a coat and boots in the mud on the sea bed near the Titanic’s stern. (Institute for Exploration, Center for Archaeological Oceanography/University of Rhode Island/NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration)

Since the ship’s 1985 discovery, the 100-foot (30-meter) forward mast has collapsed. The crow’s nest from which a lookout shouted, “Iceberg, right ahead!” disappeared. And the poop deck, where passengers crowded as the ship sank, folded under itself.

The gymnasium near the grand staircase has fallen in. And a 2019 expedition discovered that the captain’s haunting bathtub, which became visible after the outer wall of the captain’s cabin fell away, is gone.

“At some point you would expect the railing on the bow, which is very iconic, to have collapsed,” Rush said.

The company has outfitted its carbon fiber-and-titanium submersible with high-definition cameras and multi-beam sonar equipment, Rush said. Charting the decomposition can help scientists predict the fate of other deep-sea wrecks, including those that sank during the world wars.

OceanGate also plans to document the site’s sea life, such as crabs and corals. Hundreds of species have only been seen at the wreck, Rush said.

POSTCARD FROM TITANIC HERO TO SISTER SELLS FOR BIG BUCKS

Another focus will be the debris field and its artifacts. David Concannon, an OceanGate adviser who’s been involved in various Titanic expeditions, said he once followed a trail “of light debris and small personal effects like shoes and luggage” for 2 kilometers (1.2 miles).

The expedition includes archaeologists and marine biologists. But OceanGate is also bringing roughly 40 people who paid to come along. They’ll take turns operating sonar equipment and performing other tasks in the five-person submersible.

They’re funding the expedition by spending anywhere from $100,000 to $150,000 apiece.

“Somebody paid $28 million to go with Blue Origin to space, not even the moon,” said Renata Rojas, 53, of Hoboken, New Jersey. “This is cheap in comparison.”

This undated photo provided by OceanGate Expeditions in June 2021 shows the interior of company’s Titan submersible. The undersea exploration company plans to dive to the sunken Titanic as early as Wednesday, June 30, 2021, to begin what’s expected to be an annual chronicling of the shipwreck’s ongoing deterioration. (OceanGate Expeditions via AP)

Obsessed with the Titanic since she was a kid, Rojas said she started studying oceanography in hopes of one day discovering the wreck. But it was found the same year, prompting her to pursue a career in banking instead.

“I kind of need to see it with my own eyes to know that it’s really real,” she said.

Bill Sauder, a Titanic historian who previously managed research for the company that owns the ship’s salvage rights, said he doubts the expedition will discover “anything that’s front-page news.” But he said it will improve the world’s understanding of the wreck’s layout and debris field. For instance, he’d like confirmation regarding where he believes the ship’s dog kennels are.

OceanGate will not take anything from the site, making this expedition far less controversial than the now-scuttled plans by another firm to retrieve the Titanic’s radio.

RMS Titanic, the company that owns the wreck’s salvage rights, wanted to exhibit the radio equipment because it had broadcast the Titanic’s distress calls. But the proposal sparked a court battle last year with the U.S. government. It said the expedition would break federal law and a pact with Britain to leave the wreck undisturbed because it’s a grave site.

All but about 700 of the roughly 2,200 passengers and crew died after the ship struck an iceberg in 1912.

The court battle ended after the firm indefinitely delayed its plans because of complications brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. But it’s possible that not everyone will approve of this next mission.

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In 2003, Ed Kamuda, then the president of the Titanic Historical Society, told The Associated Press that human activity, including tourism and expeditions, needs to be limited. He said the site should be a simple maritime memorial and left alone.

“Let nature take back what is hers,” he said. “It’s only a matter of time before it’s a brown stain and a collection of pig iron on the ocean floor.”

Science

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